The global transition to a low-carbon economy across the energy, digital, and other sectors to meet global climate goals is driving an unprecedented surge in demand for critical minerals. Deep seabed mining (DSM) has emerged as a controversial potential source, raising questions about its economic promise, environmental and socio-economic risks, and alignment with global sustainability goals. This report assesses how DSM could impact on commitments made by Governments to enable sustainable development and the protection of biodiversity in the context of two global frameworks: The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (SDGs). Both frameworks lay out international targets guiding national policies and global efforts toward a more sustainable and equitable world and have already resulted in regional laws, for example in the EU.
Some projections suggest that terrestrial mineral extraction will not meet increasing mineral demands, and concerns over the sector’s detrimental environmental and social impacts persist. Thus, proponents promote DSM as a less harmful alternative that could help bridge the resource gap. However, DSM is an untested industry that could cause irreversible damage. The environmental, social, and economic consequences of DSM remain largely unknown, which complicates policy and decision making, and could result in commercial DSM progressing more rapidly than the scientific research needed to assess and regulate the risks effectively.
DSM involves the extraction of minerals from the deep seabed (200 metres or more). The minerals of interest include cobalt, lithium, copper, and nickel, found in three main ore types: seafloor massive sulphides, manganese nodules, and cobalt rich crusts.
Our findings suggest that DSM would have a global impact on several aspects of society, economy and environment. All 4 GBF goals for 2050 and 18 out of the 23 GBF targets for 2030 would be threatened by DSM, as well as 16 out of the 17 SDGs. The destructive methods of DSM would directly impact the seabed, meaning there is a great risk of species loss as many endemic species are found in the deep sea. The indirect impacts may spread throughout the water column, affecting migratory species, carbon sequestration, and ocean acidification. Indigenous communities and small island developing states (SIDS) would be particularly exposed to the impacts that DSM would have on economically important fisheries and tourism industries.
Our conclusions highlight five key findings on the impacts that DSM would have on the realisation of the GBF and SDGs:
1. BIODIVERSITY LOSS DSM methods of extraction (as currently practiced in exploration) are extremely physically destructive, removing or severely disturbing areas of the deep seafloor which are home to numerous endemic species of ecological significance. Many of these species are highly vulnerable to disturbance due to the low recovery rates in the deep sea. Indeed, it is still unknown how long it would take the deep sea to recover from DSM disturbances, if at all. This habitat destruction and subsequent biodiversity loss would likely have wider impacts on the oceans. These impacts affect GBF targets and SDGs that aim to protect and preserve biodiversity (e.g. GBF targets: 1-4, 7, 9, 11; and SDGs: 14, 15) and enhance nature’s contribution to people (e.g. GBF target 9:).
2. DECLINING FISH STOCKS Pollution and habitat destruction by DSM would tangibly damage fisheries, in turn affecting livelihoods that depend on fisheries for income and economic stability, as well as for food security, such as in Pacific SIDS. These impacts could deepen vulnerabilities to climate change, economic disturbances and intensifed gender disparaties related to climate change. This subsequently affects several GBF targets and SDGs that aim to enhance food security (e.g. GBF targets: 7, 9, 10; and SDG: 2) and reduce poverty (e.g. GBF target: 14 and SDG: 1).
3. EXACERBATED EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE With the ocean being the planet’s largest carbon sink, DSM is likely to disrupt the ocean’s ability to sequester carbon and mitigate against the effects of climate change. This actively undermines the targets and goals aimed at reducing and mitigating against the harmful effects of climate change and ocean acidification (e.g. GBF target: 8; and SDGs: 7, 11, 13, 14).
4. INCREASED DISPARITIES BETWEEN THE GLOBAL NORTH AND GLOBAL SOUTH Currently, implementation of benefit-sharing regulations remains unclear, putting SIDS in vulnerable financial and legal positions, since they often lack the infrastructure necessary to enforce best practices and manage financial liabilities. Additionally, transparency surrounding governance has already highlighted issues related to accountability and inclusivity. These impacts would likely affect the realisation of goals and targets aimed at reducing poverty and inequalities (e.g. GBF targets: 9, 14, 15, 20, 21; and SDG: 1, 8, 10, 16).
5. CULTURAL INFRINGEMENTS For many indigenous peoples and other local communities, the ocean holds significant cultural, historic, and spiritual value. By exploiting the ocean’s natural resources in a destructive way, DSM threatens the integrity of GBF Targets (e.g. 1, 3, 4, 21, 22) and SDGs (16) that strive to promote inclusive sustainable development and respect the rights of indigenous peoples and local communities.
This report demonstrates the extensive and profound impacts - from irreversible environmental degradation to perpetuating global inequalities - that DSM could have on the GBF’s mission to protect biodiversity and the SDGs’ vision for global sustainable development, making DSM an unsustainable choice in the green transition.
